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Forecasting Spot Electricity Market Prices Using Time Series Models

Dawit Mazengia (Institutionen för energi och miljö, Elteknik) ; Tuan Le (Institutionen för energi och miljö, Elteknik)
IEEE International Conference on Sustainable Energy Technologies, Singapore, November 24th-27th, 2008 (2008)
[Konferensbidrag, refereegranskat]

This paper addresses the importance of electricity price forecasting in the deregulated electricity market. A simple multiple linear regression approach is proposed to predict next day’s electricity prices. The developed models are tested using time-series data of the Nordic electricity market (Nord Pool) and a Canadian electricity market (Ontario) and satisfactory results are achieved. The obtained results of the Nord Pool market are found to be relatively more accurate than those of the Ontario market. This arises from the fact that the market of Ontario is very volatile and its market prices are hardly predictable. The results of the study have shown that the proposed models perform very well with the markets with rather low levels of volatility.

Nyckelord: Deregulated electricity markets, price forecasting, time-series models, strategic biddings



Denna post skapades 2008-12-03. Senast ändrad 2008-12-03.
CPL Pubid: 79534

 

Institutioner (Chalmers)

Institutionen för energi och miljö, Elteknik (2005-2017)

Ämnesområden

Elkraftteknik

Chalmers infrastruktur