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Optimization of process integration investments under energy market uncertainties

Elin Svensson (Institutionen för energi och miljö, Värmeteknik och maskinlära)
Göteborg : Chalmers University of Technology, 2008. - 51 s.
[Licentiatavhandling]

The increased climate concern in society puts pressure on industries to decrease their energy use in different ways, and a number of studies show that there is a large potential for improved energy efficiency in the energy-intensive industry, for example through process integration. Uncertainties about future energy prices and policy instruments make it, however, difficult to evaluate and compare different kinds of energy-saving measures with respect to net present value as well as reduction of CO2 emissions. This thesis presents a systematic methodology for optimization of investments in process integration under energy market uncertainty. The methodology, which also allows the timing of investments to be studied, is based on the assumption that investment decisions must be made before the outcome of uncertain parameters is known. In this way, the uncertainties are explicitly incorporated in the optimization model in a stochastic programming approach, and an investment plan that is robust to changes in the energy market can be obtained. The uncertain parameters focused on in this thesis are electricity, wood fuel, and district heating prices, which are also indirectly affected by policy instruments such as the price of CO2 emission permits and green electricity certificates. These uncertain parameters are modelled in a scenario-based approach where probabilities for the different scenarios have to be estimated. For the case study presented in the thesis, the probability distribution could, however, be varied substantially without altering the optimal solution.

Nyckelord: process integration, stochastic programming, investment planning, scenario-based modelling


Uppsatsen försvaras på svenska. The seminar will be held in Swedish.



Denna post skapades 2008-11-11. Senast ändrad 2010-07-12.
CPL Pubid: 77646

 

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Institutioner (Chalmers)

Institutionen för energi och miljö, Värmeteknik och maskinlära (2005-2014)

Ämnesområden

Optimeringslära, systemteori
Kemisk energiteknik
Övrig industriell teknik och ekonomi
Pappers-, massa- och fiberteknik

Chalmers infrastruktur

Relaterade publikationer

Inkluderade delarbeten:


A Scenario-Based Stochastic Programming Model for the Optimization of Process Integration Opportunities in a Pulp Mill


An optimization methodology for identifying robust process integration investments under uncertainty


Benefits of using an optimization methodology for identifying robust process integration investments under uncertainty - A pulp mill example


Examination

Datum: 2008-12-05
Tid: 10:00
Lokal: Sal EF, Hörsalsvägen 11
Opponent: Dr. Magnus Karlsson, institutionen för ekonomisk och industriell utveckling, avdelningen för energisystem, Linköpings universitet, Linköping

Ingår i serie

Publication - Department of Heat & Power Technology, Chalmers University of Technology 2008:4