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A Scenario-Based Stochastic Programming Model for the Optimization of Process Integration Opportunities in a Pulp Mill

Elin Svensson (Institutionen för energi och miljö, Värmeteknik och maskinlära) ; Ann-Brith Strömberg (Institutionen för matematiska vetenskaper, matematik) ; Michael Patriksson (Institutionen för matematiska vetenskaper, matematik)
(2008)
[Preprint]

Several studies show that substantial industrial energy savings can be achieved through process integration. The returns on such investments are, however, uncertain because of uncertainties in future energy prices and policies. This article presents a stochastic mixed-integer programming approach which enables the identification of robust process integration investments under uncertainty. The proposed approach is applied to the case of a pulp mill for which the complete optimization model is presented. The model is a scenario-based multistage stochastic programming model with the objective of maximizing the net present value of the investments. The model also enables the optimization of investment timing. We show as one important result that the probability distribution can be varied rather much without a change in the optimal solution. This implies that the stochastic programming approach is a valuable tool although the true probabilities for the future scenarios are not known.

Nyckelord: investment analysis, multistage stochastic programming, scenarios, decision support analysis, process integration



Denna post skapades 2008-10-13. Senast ändrad 2014-10-27.
CPL Pubid: 75260

 

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Institutioner (Chalmers)

Institutionen för energi och miljö, Värmeteknik och maskinlära (2005-2014)
Institutionen för matematiska vetenskaper, matematik (2005-2016)

Ämnesområden

Optimeringslära, systemteori
Kemisk energiteknik
Övrig industriell teknik och ekonomi
Pappers-, massa- och fiberteknik

Chalmers infrastruktur

Relaterade publikationer

Denna publikation ingår i:


Optimization of process integration investments under energy market uncertainties


Ingår i serie

Preprint - Department of Mathematical Sciences, Chalmers University of Technology and Göteborg University 2008:29