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Cost effective fuel choices in the transportation sector under different international climate regimes – results from a regionalized version of the global energy transition model, GET-R

Maria Grahn (Institutionen för energi och miljö) ; Christian Azar (Institutionen för energi och miljö) ; Kristian Lindgren (Institutionen för energi och miljö)
Proceedings Book of 15th European Biomass Conference and Exhibition from Research to Market Deployment, Industry and Climate, Berlin, Germany, 7-11 May (2007)
[Konferensbidrag, övrigt]

ABSTRACT: The aim of this study is to analyze cost-effective fuel choices in the transportation sector, given that the industrialized regions take the lead in mitigating global warming. The analysis is carried out with a regionalized version of the global energy transition model, GET-R 6.0. It is a linear programming model and it has three end-use sectors: electricity, heat and transportation fuels. It is set up to generate the energy supply mix that meets exogenously given energy demands and carbon constraints at the lowest global energy system cost under different international climate regimes. Two different CO2 reduction scenarios are applied, both meeting an atmospheric CO2 concentration target of 450 ppm by the year 2100. In the first scenario, global CO2 emissions trading are allowed. In the second scenario, it is assumed that emission reductions are not tradable across regions and that the industrialized regions take the lead in mitigating global warming. They start to reduce their CO2 emissions from 2010 while developing regions wait several decades. In this second scenario CO2 emissions are assumed to meet an equal per capita distribution of 1.0 tC/capita, in all six regions, in 2050 and then jointly follow an emission reduction path, towards 0.17 tC/capita (equal to a global emission of 2 GtC) in 2100. The results show that biofuels for transport in industrialized regions reach a mean value of 16% of the total fuel use over this century in the second scenario compared to less than half of that, 6%, in the first scenario.

Nyckelord: Keywords: CO2 emission reduction, bio-energy competitiveness, synthetic biofuels, energy systems modelling



Denna post skapades 2007-05-24. Senast ändrad 2016-08-15.
CPL Pubid: 42059