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Key factors influencing the global passenger transport dynamics using the AIM/transport model

Shivika Mittal (Institutionen för energi och miljö, Energiteknik) ; Hancheng Dai ; Shinichiro Fujimori ; Tatsuya Hanaoka ; Runsen Zhang
Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment (13619209). Vol. 55 (2017), p. 373-388.
[Artikel, refereegranskad vetenskaplig]

A bottom-up passenger transport model named AIM (Asia-pacific Integrated Model)/Transport model is developed by incorporating behavioral parameters and transportation technological details. This model is based on discrete based choice modelling covering 17 global regions soft-linked with the AIM/CGE (Computable General Equilibrium) model. In this paper, the model is used to assess the impact of various factors like travel time, energy efficiency improvement, load factor, mode preference along with environmental awareness factors on transport demand, energy and emissions. The modelling assessment results show that travel speed and land-use patterns have significant impact on the travel demand. High occupancy rate and shift towards the mass-transit system result in energy and emissions reduction. Implementation of carbon tax aligned with the two-degree target results in a 22% cumulative emission reduction from 2005 to 2100 relative to the baseline case. However, the reduction potential can be increased to 42% by combining behavioral and technology related mitigation options like mass-transit system speed improvement, transit oriented development, efficiency improvement, preference towards eco-friendly technologies and high vehicle occupancy.

Nyckelord: Discrete choice modelling; Passenger transport; AIM/transport model; Behavioral change; Carbon tax

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Denna post skapades 2017-10-04.
CPL Pubid: 252259


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Institutioner (Chalmers)

Institutionen för energi och miljö, Energiteknik (2005-2017)


Transportteknik och logistik

Chalmers infrastruktur