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Analysis of the reduction of uncertainties in the prediction of ships’ fuel consumption – from early design to operation conditions

Fabian Tillig ( Institutionen för mekanik och maritima vetenskaper, Marin teknik) ; Jonas Ringsberg ( Institutionen för mekanik och maritima vetenskaper, Marin teknik) ; Wengang Mao ( Institutionen för mekanik och maritima vetenskaper, Marin teknik) ; Bengt Ramne ( Institutionen för mekanik och maritima vetenskaper, Marin teknik)
Proceedings of the International Conference on Ships and Offshore Structures (ICSOS 2017) in Shenzhen, China, September 11-13, 2017 p. 4-19 (ICSOS2017-001). (2017)
[Konferensbidrag, refereegranskat]

This investigation presents an approach that contributes to better understanding of achievable accuracy of fuel consumption predictions of ships and provides an example of how a thorough uncertainty analysis of prediction models can be performed. A generic ship energy systems model is used for the fuel consumption prediction of two reference ships: a RoRo ship and a tanker. The study presents how model and design uncertainties can be categorized and handled in four different phases of a ship’s life – from early design to ship operation. Monte Carlo simulations are carried out for two conditions (calm water and operation at sea) to calculate the mean (expected value) and uncertainty (standard deviation) of the fuel consumption. The results show that the uncertainty in the fuel consumption prediction in a very early phase of the design process is approximately 12%, whereas at a very late phase, it reduces to less than 4%. Finally, the simulation model and the approach to predict the fuel consumption presented in the study are applied to a real ship during operation conditions to demonstrate its features for a real case.

Nyckelord: Fuel consumption; Monte Carlo simulation; ship design; ship energy efficiency; ship operation; uncertainty analysis



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Denna post skapades 2017-09-12. Senast ändrad 2017-11-29.
CPL Pubid: 251822