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Modelling the Future: System Dynamics in the Cutaneous Malignant Melanoma Care Pathway

Magdalena Claeson ; Stefan Hallberg (Institutionen för teknikens ekonomi och organisation) ; Paul Holmström (Institutionen för teknikens ekonomi och organisation, Innovation and R&D Management) ; Ann-Marie Wennberg ; Helena Gonzalez ; John Paoli
Acta dermato-venereologica (1651-2057). Vol. 96 (2016), 2, p. 181-185 .
[Artikel, refereegranskad vetenskaplig]

Incidence rates for cutaneous malignant melanoma are increasing worldwide. Estimates of the future number of melanoma cases are important for strategic planning of the care pathway. The aim of this study was to use system dynamics modelling to evaluate the long-term effects of changes in incidence, population growth and preventive interventions. Historical data on invasive melanoma cases in Western Sweden from 1990 to 2006 were obtained. Using computer simulation software, a model estimating the accumulated number of melanoma cases for 2014 to 2023 was developed. Five future scenarios were designed: stable incidence, business-as-usual, 25% reduced patient's delay, 50% reduced doctor's delay, and a combination of the last 2, called improved overall secondary prevention. After 10 years, improved overall secondary prevention would have resulted in a 42% decrease in melanomas > 4 mm and a 10% increase in melanomas ≤ 1 mm, compared with business-as-usual. System dynamics is a valuable tool, which can help policymakers choose the preventive interventions with the greatest impact.

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Denna post skapades 2015-10-12. Senast ändrad 2017-06-28.
CPL Pubid: 224000


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Institutioner (Chalmers)

Institutionen för kliniska vetenskaper, sektionen för onkologi, radiofysik, radiologi och urologi, Avdelningen för dermatologi och venereologi (GU)
Institutionen för teknikens ekonomi och organisation
Institutionen för teknikens ekonomi och organisation, Innovation and R&D Management


Dermatologi och venereologi

Chalmers infrastruktur