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Modelling transport fuel pathways: Achieving cost-effective oil use reduction in passenger cars in Sweden

Martin Börjesson (Institutionen för energi och miljö, Energiteknik) ; Erik Ahlgren (Institutionen för energi och miljö, Energiteknik)
Technological Forecasting and Social Change (0040-1625). Vol. 79 (2012), 5, p. 801-818.
[Artikel, refereegranskad vetenskaplig]

Several technology and fuel options could be used to lower the strong oil dependence of the transportation sector. To formulate policies and to cost-effectively meet oil reduction objectives, assessments and comparisons of the long-term economic performances of different technology trajectories are essential. In this work, the energy and technology costs associated with reducing oil consumption in passenger cars in Sweden are calculated for a number of possible future transport fuel pathways and for different energy prices and climate policies. An optimisation model is applied in a simulatory multiple-run approach for this purpose. The model encompasses the transportation sector, as well as the stationary energy system. In terms of results, a methanol-based pathway gives incremental system costs in the range of − 0.9–3 billion EUR for a complete phase-out of passenger car oil up to 2030. As compared to the methanol pathway, other biomass gasification-based fuel pathways involve additional incremental system costs in the region of 3 billion EUR, whereas ethanol- and electricity-based pathways give additional incremental system costs of 4–5 billion EUR. At lower oil reduction levels, the cost differences between the pathways are smaller and the electricity-based pathway is significantly more cost-competitive.

Nyckelord: Oil dependency, Transportation sector, Energy system, MARKAL, Optimisation, Biofuels

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Denna post skapades 2012-06-21. Senast ändrad 2012-07-02.
CPL Pubid: 159333


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Institutionen för energi och miljö, Energiteknik (2005-2017)


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