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Evaluating EML Modeling Tools for Insurance Purposes: A Case Study

Mikael Gustavsson (Institutionen för produkt- och produktionsutveckling, Produktionssystem) ; Mohammad Shahriari (Institutionen för produkt- och produktionsutveckling, Produktionssystem) ; Mats Lindgren
International Journal of Chemical Engineering (1687-806X). Vol. 2010 (2010), Article ID 104370,
[Artikel, refereegranskad vetenskaplig]

As with any situation that involves economical risk refineries may share their risk with insurers. The decision process generally includes modelling to determine to which extent the process area can be damaged. On the extreme end of modelling the so-called Estimated Maximum Loss (EML) scenarios are found. These scenarios predict the maximum loss a particular installation can sustain. Unfortunately no standard model for this exists. Thus the insurers reach different results due to applying different models and different assumptions. Therefore, a study has been conducted on a case in a Swedish refinery where several scenarios previously had been modelled by two different insurance brokers using two different softwares, ExTool and SLAM. This study reviews the concept of EML and analyses the used models to see which parameters are most uncertain. Also a third model, EFFECTS, was employed in an attempt to reach a conclusion with higher reliability.

Nyckelord: Process safety, Risk with insurance, Estimated maximum loss, Rifinery insurance

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Denna post skapades 2011-08-02. Senast ändrad 2011-11-11.
CPL Pubid: 143764


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