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Final Outcome of an Epidemic in Two Interacting Populations

H. El Maroufy ; Ziad Taib (Institutionen för matematiska vetenskaper, matematisk statistik)
Applied Mathematics & Information Sciences (1935-0090). Vol. 3 (2009), 2, p. 159-176.
[Artikel, refereegranskad vetenskaplig]

we consider a stochastic model for the spread of an epidemic in a closed population consisting of two groups, in which infectives cannot change their group, but are able to infect outside it. Using the matrix-geometric method we obtain a recursive relationship for the Laplace transform of the joint distribution of the number of susceptibles and infectives in the two groups. We also derive the distribution of the total observed size of the epidemic as well as its duration in the case of a general infection mechanism.

Nyckelord: Epidemic model, matrix-geometric, final size, duration of the epidemic, number of new cases, stochastic general epidemic, models, behavior, spread, hiv



Denna post skapades 2010-09-30. Senast ändrad 2011-01-20.
CPL Pubid: 127127

 

Institutioner (Chalmers)

Institutionen för matematiska vetenskaper, matematisk statistik (2005-2016)

Ämnesområden

Matematisk statistik

Chalmers infrastruktur