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Medium-Term Electricity Market Price Forecasting: A Data-driven Approach

Shahab Torghaban (Institutionen för energi och miljö, Elteknik) ; Hamidreza Zareipour ; Tuan Le (Institutionen för energi och miljö, Elteknik)
42nd North American Power Symposium, Arlington, USA, September 26-28, 2010 (2010)
[Konferensbidrag, refereegranskat]

Medium-term electricity price forecasting is necessary for several applications in electricity markets, such as pricing derivatives, maintenance scheduling for generation companies, and budgeting and fuel contracting. However, this is a complex task because of the inherent dependence of price to other sometimes unpredictable variables, such as variations in availability of different supply resources. This paper presents two regression-based linear forecasting models to predict the monthly average of electricity spot prices in deregulated electricity markets, with specific focus on systems with large penetration of hydro generation units. The forecasting horizon is a full year, i.e., the models are used to generate 12-month-ahead forecasts. Numerical results are provided for Nord Pool market.



Denna post skapades 2010-08-13. Senast ändrad 2010-12-28.
CPL Pubid: 124503

 

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Institutioner (Chalmers)

Institutionen för energi och miljö, Elteknik

Ämnesområden

Elkraftteknik

Chalmers infrastruktur